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5/22/24: Wheat futures continue to push higher on concerns about Russia’s crop.  IKAR lowered its estimate from 86 million metric tons to 83.5 million metric tons this week siting the continued dryness as the cause.  That is the main story and will drive current prices for the foreseeable future.  The Ukraine story of concerns about the past freeze event have gone away, as they came out and stated on Tuesday that it appears that the damage was minimal at best and of their major crop’s wheat was the least effected.  We do not have problems with US wheat or planting progress.  Corn sits at 70% planted vs a 5-year average of 71%.  Soybeans sit at 52% planted vs 49% 5-year average and Spring Wheat sits at 79% planted vs five-year average of 65%.  So safe to say no problems with US plantings, crops getting in just fine and the fears of too much rain seem to be overblown.  Winter wheat conditions are 49% Good/Excellent, more than double this same time last year.  So, if Russia has major problems and demand does change the US should have plenty of supply to take advantage.  In typical supply side rally form, wheat basis is getting hammered in the face of this rally.  Demand remains rough for US wheat on the front end as harvest has begun.  Feels like basis will not recover until October forward once the crop is put away.  Even at smaller production Russia likely exports per normal the first 6 months of the marketing year, and we would feel the effects in the back half of the year (Jan-June 2025).  That would be our window to snag some extra exports if the crop ends up being truly small.   

* Please call with BOLS counts for the upcoming wheat harvest.

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Quotes are on 15 min delay with futures markets.  Please call to confirm pricing 

Futures Quotes
Quotes are delayed, as of May 24, 2024, 01:57:55 AM CDT or prior.
Wheat Closes Higher on Thursday -

The wheat complex started off weaker on Thursday, but rounded out the day with strength. Chicago contracts were firm to 5 ¼ cents higher in the

Hogs Continues Lower as Pork Cutout Drags -

Lean hogs closed Thursday with losses of 7 to 87 cents across the board. USDA’s National Average Base Hog negotiated price was up 44 cents in the

Cotton Rallies Again on Thursday -

Cotton futures were up anywhere from 24 to 234 points on Thursday, as July led the way. Cotton limits are back to 400 points, with the July contract

Soybeans Fall as Products Pulled Lower -

Soybeans slipped lower into the Thursday close, as contracts were down 2 to 7 cents on the day. Soymeal futures was front months with a dime to

Corn Hold Gains, Following Decent Export Sales Data -

Corn futures held on tight for gains to close out the Thursday session. Contracts were up 1 to 3 cents across the board as the final bell rang.

Cattle Leak Lower into the Close, Despite Midday Gains -

Live cattle are trading with 37 to 60 cent gains across most contracts on Thursday. Cash trade this week has been quiet so far, with a few light

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